Michael Beasley officially arrived this past week.
Better late than never, right? For Miami, it's got the potential to change everything.
The reigning No. 2 draft pick, never really in the discussion for Rookie of the Year, has blown Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook out the water over the last few games, and those other guys have been pretty good in their own right.
Beasley has just been incredible.
A streak of three consecutive double-doubles ended on the regular season's final night, but only because Erik Spoelstra is smart enough to know he's Miami's x-factor and therefore rested him.
For whatever reason, Beasley has flipped the switch. The precocious 19-year-old who perpetually looks like he's enjoying a stick of gum in front of a massive plasma screen has transformed into the Michael Beast-ley that owned amateurs back at K-State.
He's drilling jumpers, attacking the boards on both ends of the floor and making an effort on defense. He's playing smart, instinctually.
Spoelstra was never going to go the Gregg Popovich-George Hill route with his rookie forward, but up until the last few weeks, you wouldn't have been able to fault him if he tried to minimize his role come postseason. Beasley had been too inconsistent to truly count on. If he responded, it would be a bonus, but you surely couldn't count on him as an essential piece.
The last few games have scrapped all that.
It now seems improbable that Miami will be able to advance past Atlanta without Beasley serving as more than an energizer off the bench. He'll have to be a focal point, capable of keeping Josh Smith's attention to keep him from roaming around and altering shots. He'll have to be the top sixth man in the series, out-performing the very capable Flip Murray and another No. 2 pick, forward counterpart Marvin Williams.
Williams is ripe for the picking, too, coming off lower back injury that cost him 16 games prior to his return last weekend. Williams scored 13 points against the Heat on Tuesday night in what wound up resembling a glorified Summer League affair, but he's still not up to speed and won't be until deeper into this series.
Beasley is clearly in sync, playing with as much confidence as he's had since entering the league and teasing coaches with his potential. He's apparently been ramping up to this point in the season with veteran instinct, maintaing a cruising altitude until the time arrived to truly take off.
As a result, Miami has the chance to truly dream about being a threat in the Eastern Conference. With Beasley surging and changing the game off the bench to complement proven playoff-tested veterans Dwyane Wade, Jermaine O'Neal and Udonis Haslem, the Heat have the makings of a team that's going to be tough to snuff out four times -- for anyone.
It may have taken Beasley a while to join us, but he may make up for it by staying around a little longer than anyone expected. If this recent surge continues, he might wind up the highest-profile rookie from this past draft class still out there when only eight teams remain.
HISTORY: Atlanta won three of four over Miami this season, with the last meeting coming Tuesday in a game where both sides predominantly featured reserves. The Hawks won the only playoff series between these squads, advancing 3-2 in the first round back in 1994, the year it swapped Dominique Wilkins for Danny Manning. The Hawks were the No. 1 seed in the East that season, yet Miami managed to score the first two postseason victories in franchise history.
PLAYER TO WATCH: Dwyane Wade led the NBA scoring with over 30 points per game, and odds are good he'll top the 40-point mark at least a couple of times in this series. It remains to be seen how many shots he'll need to give the Heat the offense it needs, and most important, what percentage he shoots.
Wade has had a pair of steady efforts against the Hawks and one really poor one, shooting 9-for-24 on Dec. 12 in an 87-73 loss. That was his first taste of Atlanta this season, so it's encouraging for Miami that he bounced back to shoot 22-for-41 in the other two games he participated in. Over three contest, Wade averaged 25.7 points, five boards, 5.7 assists, two steals, 1.7 blocks and 3.7 turnovers. The Hawks would take that production against them every day of the week, but given Wade's ability to get to the line and the intensity of playoff competition, that's unlikely.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Atlanta is banking on the same type of homecourt atmosphere that helped smother the Celtics at this time last year, so taking advantage of Philips Arena will be a major factor.. The Hawks are starting a postseason at home for the first time since 1997, so it's imperative that they win a Game 1 and maintain the edge the No. 4 seed gives them. Don't underestimate the edge playing at home will give them with the officials in defending Wade, as the guys in striped shirts will undoubtedly be more inclined to swallow their whistle in the A-T-L then they would at the A-A-A.
KEY MATCHUP: Jermaine O'Neal needs to be healthy and active down low against Al Horford, who could be a series-changer if he can supply a consistent low-post scoring threat. Between O'Neal and Udonis Haslem, Miami has capable one-on-one defenders to keep the talented second-year center from becoming a major factor in this series. That said, if O'Neal is still gimpy and Haslem can't effectively shake off his thumb injury, Horford is a winner who can rise to the challenge and help deliver this series.
LIKELY STARTERS: Hawks -- F Maurice Evans, F Josh Smith, C Al Horford, G Mike Bibby, G Joe Johnson.
Heat -- F Jamario Moon, Udonis Haslem, C Jermaine O'Neal, G Mario Chalmers, G Dwyane Wade.
COACHING EDGE: Erik Spoelstra might be the coaching rookie of the year, but he'll be handling the chores of a head coach in a postseason for the first time. To his credit, the NBA's youngest coach had been in charge of developing game plans for the last seven seasons as an assistant, earning a ring for his efforts. He'll be prepared. Woodson has a ring as an assistant, too, winning with Detroit back in 2004. He broke his playoff cherry as a head coach in last season's loss to Boston.
THE HAWKS WILL WIN IF: Joe Johnson doesn't get caught up in his personal duel with Wade, shares the ball, takes smart shots and gets in his licks down the stretch in clutch situations. Smith, Horford and Bibby play their roles and the Hawks hold it down in Atlanta, making their hard-earned homecourt edge pay off.
THE HEAT WILL WIN IF: Wade puts his head down and gets into the paint whenever he wants, swishing, dishing and drawing fouls.. O'Neal and Haslem provide enough inside, and rookies Beasley and Mario Chalmers act like they've been there before, a good possibility given their pedigree and cool demeanor. Contrary to anyone's foolish beliefs, Wade can't win a playoff series by himself.
REQUIRED READING: Sekou Smith of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution; Chris Perkins of the Palm Beach Post.
MORON CONVENTION: Flash back to March 6, a Friday night, when a phone call from Charlotte disrupted my channel surfing between NBA and NCAA conference tournament games. On the other line, a trusted source supplied the details of an altercation that had just gone down in the visiting Hawks locker room, where Smith and Mike Woodson had to be separated after a verbal disagreement. It sounded like the beginning of the Hawks crumbling down the stretch, especially since there's been muttering about in-fighting the last few seasons. Instead, it helped galvanize the Hawks, who went on to win seven straight and are 13-7 since the incident.
PREDICTION: Miami in six. The key for the Heat will be finding a way to steal a game in Atlanta, and once they do, they won't let control of the series slip out of their grasp. Those with short memories forget the Heat won 11 of 12 at home to win their championship back in 2006, so you shouldn't discount what a tough place to play AmericanAirlines Arena can be when the front-running Miami fans turn out in droves. Look for the Heat to win all three games there as Wade gets significant help from his supporting cast to guide his team into the second round.
Tony Mejia is senior writer for Pro Basketball News. He can be reached at mejia@probasketballnews.com.