By Justin Powell
ProBasketballNews.com
Halfway through the season, a lot of analysts seem content handing the Rookie of the Year award to Seattle's Kevin Durant.
And why shouldn’t they? After all, he’s averaging more than 19 points per game (through Friday), and everyone knows those awards are based almost exclusively on numbers.
I’ll tell you why they shouldn‘t -- Durant isn’t the best rookie, and a lot of the numbers prove, at the very least, that it‘s not an open and shut case.
Mike Conley Jr. missed a few weeks because of
injury, but since coming back and replacing
Damon Stoudamire in Memphis' starting lineup
in early January, he’s been stellar.
Forgive me if the next few paragraphs are too
numbers-based and thus boring, but I want to
start with some statistics so I don’t come off as
crazy before launching into more of my
projections.
For the season, Conley is averaging 8.9 points,
2.6 rebounds and five assists per game. As a
starter, he’s been good for 10.58, 3.16 and 5.75,
respectively.
Compared to Durant (19.4, 4.2 and 2.1), those
numbers don’t look incredible. But a couple of the other statistics are more telling.
As has been well-documented, Durant is not shooting the ball exceptionally well, at 40.4 percent (compared to 44.4 for Conley).
An even bigger difference comes in the assist-to-turnover ratio department. Granted, Conley is a pass-first point guard while Durant is a shoot-first two guard, so it’s no surprise Conley is doing better in that category. But just how much better he’s doing proves a lot about each player.
With an average of 1.61 turnovers per game, Conley has an assist-to-turnover ratio of better than 3-to-1. Durant, on the other hand, averages 2.85 turnovers per game -- a decent amount more than his 2.1 assists per contest. So his ratio is less than 1-to-1.
And it’s not like he just started slow and is getting better in that category -- in his last four games, Durant has nearly three times as many turnovers (8) than he does assists (3). Those are awful numbers for any guard, whether he’s a one or a two.
Playing under former Phoenix assistant Marc Iavaroni in a system similar to the Suns’, Conley handles the ball a lot -- not quite as much as Steve Nash, but close. When the shot clock runs down, the ball is in Conley’s hands, and he’s asked to break down the defense and make a play.
Durant handles the ball a decent amount, too, but not nearly as much as Conley. So for Durant to average a turnover a game more than Conley is surprising.
Sure, Durant is decent at putting the ball in the hole himself (especially because he shoots as often as he does), but he’s more likely to pass the ball to the other team than he is to pass it to a teammate for a bucket.
I’m not saying Conley has proven himself deserving of the Rookie of the Year award yet. He’s played in fewer games than Durant, and he’s started a lot fewer. But in the past few games Conley has had his first 20-point contest (in an overtime loss to Cleveland) and his first double-double (with 10 points and 10 assists in a win over Chicago).
If he keeps up the pace he’s played at since becoming a starter -- and there’s no reason to think he won’t -- he should give Durant a real run for his money in the running for that award.
And in the long-term, I expect Conley to be the better player. Not only is he more of an all-around asset for his team right now, but he has more room to grow. The active player Conley has drawn the most comparisons to is Tony Parker, largely because both players can seemingly drive into the lane at will and both struggled with their jump shot early in their careers.
Even if Conley doesn’t improve his jumper at all, he will be a good NBA point guard. He’s showing that now.
But if -- and more likely when -- he adds a consistent 3-point shot to his repertoire and defenders have to respect that range, giving him easier access to driving lanes, he will be an elite point guard on the same level with guys like Parker and Chris Paul.
There’s no doubt Durant will be a great scorer throughout his NBA career, and he’ll probably develop into a consistent All-Star caliber guy. But will he ever do enough to be a great team player? That’s more open for debate.
With pretty strong showings this year by a couple of the other top five picks from last year’s draft -- Al Horford and Yi Jianlin -- Durant’s place among the top of his class remains very much up in the air.
It’s just one man’s opinion, but if I had to project how we’ll rank those first five picks at the end of their careers, it would go like this:
1. Greg Oden (assuming he can avoid more injury problems)
2. Mike Conley
3. Yi Jianlin
4. Kevin Durant
5. Al Horford
Maybe if you put Durant on the same team as Conley, things would be different. Conley is one of those players who makes his teammates better -- as he’s shown recently with Pau Gasol, who’s been on a tear since Conley was inserted into the lineup.
When you’re judging a player’s value to his team, that ability to make teammates better ends up speaking a lot louder than any statistics ever will.
Let’s just hope the voters recognize that and view the big picture -- not just Durant’s 19.4 points per game -- when they’re deciding who should win Rookie of the Year.
Justin Powell is the assistant editor of ProBasketballNews.com. He can be reached at pkmpowell@yahoo.com.
