By Tony Mejia
ProBasketballNews.com
For all the drama surrounding the highly anticipated first round of these NBA playoffs, the top four seeds in each conference held serve. Boston's failure to win in Atlanta provided the most intriguing aspect of the postseason's first few weeks, doing away with whatever aura of invincibility it would've enjoyed had it mowed down the Hawks to follow up a 66-win regular season.
Considering the alternative, picking up a win in the only Game 7 of the opening round isn't the worst of consolation prizes. Survive and advance, regardless of how easy or pretty it looks.
Same goes for these predictions, as Boston's survival wrapped up and 8-for-8 in first round series winners. Heck, I'll even take credit for saying the Hawks would pick up a win, considering most national media failed to give them even that morsel of respect.
The drama ramps up in Round 2. Here's your survival guide:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 Boston vs. No. 4 Cleveland
Season series: The series was even 2-2, though one of Boston's wins (80-70 on Dec. 2) came against a LeBron James-less Cavs squad. In the interest of full disclosure, one of Cleveland's triumphs (114-113 on Feb. 5) was posted in Kevin Garnett's absence.
Series snapshot: There's something of an identity crisis going on here. Cleveland feels its entitled to more respect as defending Eastern Conference champs, while Boston, in spite of its first round struggles, owns the top seed. For the casual fan, this looms as King James against the Boston Three Party, an opportunity to see if the heir apparent to Michael Jordan can knock the NBA's most celebrated franchise down a peg. He's proven capable, but will he have enough help?
Top matchup: As good as LeBron/Paul Pierce figures to be, keep an eye on Garnett's duel with Ben Wallace. The Cavs acquired the player formerly acknowledged as the league's top defensive player specifically to help contain the likes of Garnett, Detroit's Rasheed Wallace and Orlando's Dwight Howard. The 33-year-old Wallace has seen his best days, but still has the potential to muster up a strong showing, especially with days off in between games, to offer up some resistance.
Three keys: 1. James won't have Soulja Boy wishing evil on him in this series, but he will have to deal with the same physical style Washington employed against him. Easy layups will be hard to come by, especially with James Posey, Scot Pollard, P.J. Brown, Glen Davis and Leon Powe readily available to deliver hard fouls. LeBron will have to keep his cool and get used to the rough play that figures to follow him from here on out. 2. Daniel Gibson had a big series against Washington, often taking over as the focal point of the offense to give James a breather. Considering the Celtics firepower, he and Wally Szczerbiak have to deliver to help the Cavs keep pace. 3. Similarly, Garnett can't do it all inside against Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao and Joe Smith. Kendrick Perkins had a solid regular season, but has to raise his game and become more of a factor than he was in Atlanta, where he averaged just 5.3 rebounds in Boston's three losses.
X-factors: Posey will see a lot of LeBron and should be a major factor in this series. Not only does he already have a ring, he's one of the most physical defenders in the game. Without doubt, he'll be in the middle of any potential skirmishes between these sides. After missing the first five games of the series against Washington with a sprained left ankle, Sasha Pavlovic returned for spot duty in Game 6 and should round into form against Boston. The Cavs have missed his presence on the perimeter on both ends of the floor. If healthy, expect to see him chasing Ray Allen around.
Mejia's selection: Celtics in 7.
No. 2 Detroit vs. No. 3 Orlando
Season series: The series was even, 2-2, with Orlando finally snapping a nine-game losing streak to Detroit that included last year's first round series on Jan. 21. They added another win for good measure coming out of the All-Star break on
Feb. 19.
Series snapshot: Detroit represents the old guard, trying to turn back the rise of the Dwight Howard-led Magic, a team they've owned for years. While they've broken the stranglehold they were Pistons previously held, that means very little unless it translates to this postseason.
Top matchup: The Pistons are going to throw multiple bodies to try to tug on Superman's cape, with Rasheed Wallace drawing some of the work no matter how much Flip Saunders is looking to avoid that. Although Wallace will have to pick his spots as to when to be aggressive to stay out of foul trouble, he can try and counter Howard's effectiveness around the basket by trying to draw him out to the perimeter. This chess match will carry on all series.
Three keys: 1. Chauncey Billups got a run for his money from Philadelphia's Andre Miler, but should have his way with Jameer Nelson's lack of size. Not only will Detroit utilize his ability to post, but given his experience reading defenses, he'll be able to recognize when the Magic send help and set up teammates for easy baskets. Nelson can't put his head down if he's getting beat on defense because the Magic need him to knock down open shots in order to keep Detroit honest when they swarm on Howard inside. 2. Tayshaun Prince is going to make life difficult for whatever forward he defends, be it Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis, but he can't guard him both. Orlando must swing the ball, play smart and take advantage of their opportunities by playing through whoever Prince isn't checking. Both Lewis and Turkoglu have advantages against Wallace, Maxiell and McDyess. 3. Orlando was the most prolific 3-point shooting team in the league this past season, but have to make sure it plays through Howard to set up open looks rather than coming down court and taking quick shots outside the flow of the offense. If the Magic panic and get frustrated against Detroit's stingy halfcourt defense and start hoisting up jumpers in transition, they'll be in deep trouble.
X-factors: Howard has to continue the nice run of free throw shooting he enjoyed against the Raptors. Not only does he figure to get to the line often, but he'll need to eliminate any thoughts Saunders might entertain of resorting to the Hack-a-Shaq strategy to disrupt Orlando's rhythm. Rodney Stuckey needs to play a big role as the third guard behind Billups and Rip Hamilton, keeping the pressure on a Magic squad that has had trouble containing the penetration of opposing guards. That's right up Stuckey's alley.
Mejia's selection: Pistons in 5.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 4 Utah
Season series: L.A. won it 3-1, but two of their victories came with Andrew Bynum in the fold and there were no games played with Pau Gasol available. The Lakers ended Utah's 19-game home winning streak on March 20 (106-95) in their most recent meeting while Gasol was on the mend with an ankle sprain. Utah's only win came without Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur in the mix.
Series snapshot: After being the only team to flex their muscles and break out brooms in the first round, L.A. figures to have a much tougher time with a Jazz team that played their best ball of the season down the stretch. Last year's unexpected run to the Western Conference finals was partially due to a favorable draw, but supplied Utah with the necessary confidence to believe it can get even further this time around.
Top matchup: Jerry Sloan and Phil Jackson may try and keep them apart as best they can, but Pau Gasol and Carlos Boozer figure to mix it up in the paint throughout the series. The Jazz haven't seen the Lakers with Gasol in the middle, so they'll be getting their first look at an L.A. offense that attempts to play inside-out by funneling the ball through the post and will have to adjust their help defense accordingly. Given the current form of both big men, this should be a treat to watch.
Three keys: 1. Kobe Bryant has to maintain his comfort zone for the Lakers to advance. Rattling him will be Utah's top objective, especially if they can frustrate him into trying to do too much. Phil Jackson will undoubtedly have a long talk with his star to remind him that focusing on keeping his teammates involved got L.A. the top seed and Bryant his elusive MVP trophy. He averaged 29.8 points and five assists against Utah in the four-game series. 2. Andrei Kirilenko will be counted on to be one of the primary figures to help disrupt Bryant and will also have to pitch in on the boards. His consistency on the defensive end is often dependent on how many touches he gets on the opposite end of the floor, which is an issue the Jazz can't afford. He notched a triple-double in Utah's lone win against the Lakers and is capable of being a major factor in this series if he keeps himself properly motivated. 3. Bryant has pushed himself to be in top physical shape in order to effectively deal with an opponent's top playmaker, so you can bet he'll rotate over to guard Deron Williams during critical stretches. How Utah's third-year point guard deals with the extra pressure of Bryant's stifling pressure will play a critical role.
X-factors: Derek Fisher defected from Utah this past offseason and will be turning over all the trade secrets and tendencies he was privy to during his one season there. There have been many times this season where the Jazz have longed for his experience, an asset the Lakers have thrived on. Utah will have to capitalize on its unparallel homecourt advantage (39-5 entering this series) in order to pull this upset. If they surrender a game, it's hard to imagine they'll win twice at Staples Center.
Mejia's selection: Jazz in 6.
No. 2 New Orleans vs. No. 3 San Antonio
Season series: The Southwest Division's top two split their four meetings, though the margin of victory was drastically different. The Spurs took their wins by a convincing 10.5-point clip, but were embarrassed by the Hornets in the losses, losing 102-78 and most recently, 100-85 on March 12.
Series snapshot: The Hornets defeating a Dallas squad whose psyche proved to be fragile didn't exactly shock the world, but ending San Antonio's repeat bid definitely would. This isn't about earning respect; anyone who won't acknowledge New Orleans' accomplishments is too stubborn to waste your time with. What this is about is the Spurs' experience and pedigree against an upstart looking to dispel the myth that you must pay your dues before competing for a championship. If New Orleans can eliminate San Antonio, who is to say they can't beat anybody?
Top matchup: Chris Paul's speed and decision-making was too much for Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and the Mavericks, but he'll be going up against another human Formula 1 ride in Tony Parker. Paul has put up numbers only a handful of individuals have ever even approached in their first playoffs series, while Parker has followed up being the top performer of the 2007 postseason with a superb showing against Phoenix, averaging a team-high 29.6 points per game. Both will put their stamp on this series, but the point guard who creates the most opportunities during winning time will guide their team through.
Three keys: 1. In the Hornets two victories over the Spurs, David West shot 29-for-41 and averaged 30.5 points. In the two losses, he was held to half that. West helped set the tone for his team's win over Dallas by getting in Dirk Nowitzki's face early. There won't be any of that against Kurt Thomas, but putting up big numbers will be vital to advancing. 2. Manu Ginobili was held to an 11-point average in San Antonio's two losses against New Orleans and has to take advantage of Morris Peterson and Peja Stojakovic on the offensive end of the floor. He's as healthy as he's been in months, which spells trouble for the Hornets. Other than Bryant and James, there's no wing who creates shots for himself and others better than Ginobili. 3. If this series winds up as close as it looms on paper, 3-point shooting should be the deciding factor. The Hornets can't afford for Peja Stojakovic to have off nights, while San Antonio consistently relies on the clutch shooting of veterans Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry and Brent Barry to push them over the top.
X-factors: If Tyson Chandler can put together a few big shot-blocking nights early in the series, he can single-handedly counter the Spurs penetration by giving them something to think about when driving the hole. Tim Duncan can eliminate that altogether if he can land New Orleans' center in foul trouble consistently.
Mejia's selection: Spurs in 6.
Tony Mejia is a regular contributor to Pro Basketball News. Comment on this story by sending an e-mail here.
NBA PLAYOFFS: May 5, 2008
Breaking down the second round
Copyright 2008 Pro Basketball News. All rights reserved.
Click here to add text.
PBN's Minor League Training Camp
August 7-10 • Akron, Ohio
