By Sean Davis
ProBasketballNews.com
PBN draft expert Sean Davis offers his take on whether the top underclassmen should enter the NBA draft or stay in school. This is the first in a series leading up to the draft.
MICHAEL BEASLEY - PF
19 years old, 6-9; 220 lbs.
Kansas St, Freshman
NBA Readiness
Beasley is the most NBA ready player entering the
draft since Lebron James in 2003. After being
named the MVP in the McDonald's All-Star game
he stormed onto the NCAA scene scoring 32 points
and grabbing 24 rebounds in his first college game.
He went on to average 26.2 ppg and 12.4 rpg while
recording 28 double-doubles.
Beasley has a wide range of strengths that will continue his success into the NBA. He is ambidextrous with a soft touch around the basket. He is quick with great body control and incredible strength. He can back you down and beat up in the post or step out side and beat you off the dribble. He has all the qualities you look for in a guard with great first step, strong pull-up jumper, create his own shot, and can knock down the open 3.
Let's not forget he will get any team a minimum of 10 rebounds every single night. Beasley has a natural ability to get position, see the ball, and go after the ball on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
NBA Improvements
Experts believe Beasley's size will be a weakness in the NBA. I disagree. He may be a bit undersized but I do not think it will affect him except on defense slightly. He will go up against bigger players, but he will have a better combination of strength and quickness then most of his opponents. By giving up size and gaining strength and quickness he will have no problem matching up with any 4 in the NBA. Beasley will need to improve his passing skills. He tends to look for a bad shot in a double team instead of looking for the open man. These weaknesses can be easily adjusted and improved.
NBA Future - All-Star
Beasley will be an All-Star by his second or third year in the NBA. If he ends up with Miami the combination of Beasley and Wade could be lethal. From the start of his NBA career he will put up nothing but double-doubles. He will have more one-on-one opportunities and more space to operate. The NBA game will benefit him and he will be a force to reckon with for years to come.
Draft Range: Top 2
Stock Watch: Rising
Go or Stay? Go
Beasley proved day in and day out he was by far the best college basketball player in the nation. Depending on the draft order he is almost guaranteed to be the first pick and there is no reason he should pass on that opportunity.
In the 2006 draft Joakim Noah was almost guaranteed the first pick in the draft, but chose to return to school for the possibility of a repeat. His stock never reached that high again, and his weaknesses were exposed throughout the season dropping him to the 9th pick in the 2007 draft. Although it is obvious Beasley would probably be the No. 1 pick the 2009 draft there is no reason to take that risk.
The only reason Beasley went to Kansas State to be coached by Bob Huggins and even contemplated transferring after his departure. With - State showing no signs of returning a national championship-caliber team there is no reason Beasley should stick around.
JERRYD BAYLESS- PG/SG
19 years old; 6-3; 199 lbs.
Arizona, Freshman
NBA Readiness
You must be careful when evaluating players from up-tempo systems such as Arizona. Statistics can be deceiving and you must focus specifically on skills. Right now Bayless is a better scorer than distributor and will be able to contribute to an NBA organization from the start as a shooting guard. He has a great pull-up and step back jumper. He shot 40 percent from the 3-point line and has NBA range. He is extremely quick and explosive and can finish at the
basket. He only needs an inch to score and can create his own shot.
NBA Improvements
Bayless would need to spend next year working on his point guard abilities and reducing his turnovers. He averaged three turnovers a game last year to only four assists. Bayless had all the talent he needed around him and barely squeaked into the NCAA tourney and got knocked out in the first round by an average West Virginia team. I question his desire to do whatever it takes to win. Bayless needs to prove he is a winner and not another Stephon Marbury.
NBA Future - Starter
Starter.Bayless will have a difficult time adjusting to the NBA. He is accustomed to being in control and always having the ball in his hands. He will not have the green light in the NBA like he did in college. Players oftentimes are less effective playing with a leash after having the green light. He also is the type of player that could score 50 points in a losing effort. He is not strong or big enough to guard a 2 and may be a bit lazy to chase around a Steve Nash or Tony Parker. I think his projection to picked in the top 5 is too high. He is a middle first-round pick and will need a couple years before becoming a consistent contributor.
Draft Range: Top 5
Stock Watch: Standstill
Go or Stay? Stay
Bayless has proven to be among the top scorers in the nation and has a unique ability to see the floor. He has positioned himself to be a guaranteed lottery pick and could go as early as the 3rd pick, but still has a lot to gain by returning for another year.
Arizona will be a legit contender for the national championship with the return of Chase Budinger and the addition next year's freshman sensation Brandon Jennings. Brandon Jennings is a true point guard that distributes the ball like Chris Paul. Jennings will make Bayless a much better player creating more of an opportunity for him to score while playing the 2 guard. This will prevent him
from working on his point guard skills, which would be a big reason for his return. Although I think Bayless should stay it's hard to believe he will pass up being a guaranteed lottery pick, so look for him to sign an agent and enter the draft.
BROOK LOPEZ - C
19 years old; 7-0; 260 lbs.
Stanford, Sophomore
NBA Readiness
Brook Lopez had an outstanding year carrying his Stanford basketball team on his back. He carried an average Stanford team to the Sweet 16 and would have made a Final Four appearance if he had any help around him. You might say "he had his twin brother Robin," but anyone who watched Stanford could see Brook also carried Robin. He averaged 19 points and 8 rebounds, scoring in double figures in every game but two.
He has a great back-to-the-basket game and has no problem shooting over a defender. He is not a flashy player but has a nice touch around the basket --
a lot like Tim Duncan. Brook has a great go-to move which a nearly unstoppable hook shot. He has a knack for getting to the free-throw line, averaging almost 10 free throws a game and shot 79 percent from the stripe.
Brook proved to be among the top centers in the nation, while carrying Stanford to second in the Pac-10 and an appearance in the Sweet 16. People overlook his basketball smarts and willingness to be coached, which is a big reason
not to pass on him.
NBA Improvements
Lopez may struggle early in his NBA career. He is not aggressive enough, which causes him to be an average rebounder and soft on the defensive end. He only averaged two blocks per game and had a hard time with quicker guards attacking him. He did well bodying up in one-on-one situations, but next year when bigger and faster guards attack him he will put himself in foul trouble quickly. Lopez needs to get stronger and become tenacious on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, I question his ability to pass out of the post -- as he only accumulated 57 assists (and 112 turnovers) in two years.
NBA Future - Starter
Lopez has a very bright future in the NBA. Like I said, he will struggle early, but as long as he continues to improve and get strongers there is no doubt he will become a solid contributor to an NBA team. He may never develop into an All-Star, but he will be an outstanding player in the NBA for years to come.
Draft Range: Top 10
Stock Watch: Rising
Go or stay? Go
Lopez is making the right decision by declaring for the draft. He needs to get into the NBA and begin playing against real centers on a day-to-day basis. He will not improve anymore at the college level by beating up on his brother in practice and scoring 30 against 6-9 centers throughout the season.
ERIC GORDON -SG
19 years old; 6'3; 215
Indiana, Freshman
NBA Readiness
Gordon is flat-out a pure scorer. He has a great mid-range game with a quick release and can create his own shot. He has an explosive first step and a uncanny ability to finish at the basket. With his wide-framed body and athleticism he likes to draw contact and get to the free-throw line, where he shoots 83 percent. He can shoot coming off screens and plays at different speeds. Late in the game Gordon wants the ball in his hands and wants to take the last shot.
NBA Improvements
Gordon has a few weaknesses that were exposed as the year progressed. He burst onto the scene, but fell off late in the season. He averaged 27.3 ppg throughout the first six games of the season and finished averaging 18.2 the last 6 games of the season -- making me believe he will struggle with the rigorously long NBA season. In the most important game of the season, Gordon scored eight points while shooting 3-15 from the field and 0-6 from the 3-point line in the NCAA tourney, which raises red flags. Gordon was turnover prone throughout the season, mostly because he was completely out of control, averaging 3.8 turnovers per game. He picks up a lot of charges and
has a hard time seeing the floor. G0rdon has a poor shot selection and needs to improve his ball-handling.
NBA Future - Starter
Gordon will have rough start to his NBA career. He will not make an immediate impact when entering the league and will have to adjust and improve his game before reaching his full potential. He will be a sure lottery pick, so he will have the opportunity to become a solid NBA player in the future. Look for Gordon to struggle early in his career, but in three or four years to become a key player for some team.
Draft Range: Lottery Pick
Stock Watch: Dropping
Go or stay? Stay
There is no doubt Gordon can play in the NBA and will be a lottery pick, but he still has a lot to gain from returning for one more season. If Indiana would have hired any coach besides Tom Crean, I would have advised Gordon to declare, but Crean is the long- and short-term answer to the program. Crean is guard-oriented and will make Gordon a much better player. Crean is solely responsible for the success of a Marquette team led by the outstanding guard play year in and year out. But Gordon has elected to enter the draft and signed an agent, forgoing his college eligibility.
DERRICK ROSE - PG
19 years old; 6'4"; 180 lbs.
Memphis, Freshman
NBA Readiness
Rose is NBA ready in a number ways. He is a 6-4 point guard with freakish athleticism and roadrunner speed. With that combination he will be a deadly point guard, but could also play the two guard if needed. He has great ball-handling skills, especially in traffic, and is sensational in transition. He has a great mid-range game and can finish around the basket like a big man.
Rose knows how to change speeds and explodes out of every move making him very difficult to guard. All of his attributes will make for an easy transition to a big role in the NBA.
NBA Improvements
I will start with an improvement that is vastly overlooked. Although Rose is still a kid and can get away with eating gummy bears and cinnamon buns for breakfast, lunch and dinner now, he won't be able to in the NBA. The season is long and grueling and to survive it is essential for players to diet and take care of their bodies. On the court Rose needs to slow down and keep control in the lane, which will lead to reduced turnovers and smarter decisions. He is a less-than-average outside shooter and must extend his range. He only shot
33.7 percent on 3-pointers for the season. Lastly, he needs to play with more
intensity and IMPROVE HIS FREETHROW SHOOTING.
NBA Future - All-Star
Rose is the closest thing to Chris Paul entering the draft and will be an All-Star after no more than three years in the league. In a league where a great point guards can alter a franchise, Rose may have played his way into the first pick in the draft. He will be an even better player under NBA rules, which will give him one-on-one opportunities and more space in the lane. With his size, scoring ability, and vision, look for Rose to collect a number of triple-doubles throughout his NBA career.
Draft Range: Top 2
Stock Watch: Through the roof
Go or stay? Go
Rose is sure-fire lottery pick with a shot to be the first pick in the draft and has nothing to gain from one more year in Conference USA. He proved to be the best player on a roster full of NBA players and carried his team the NCAA Finals. He also proved to be the best point guard in the nation -- outplaying Jamont Gordon, Drew Neitzel, D.J.Augustin, and Darren Collison in head-to-head matchups on the way to the NCAA championship game. He outplayed Mario Chalmers for he majority of the title game before Memphis fell apart in the last two minutes. Losing the championship might leave a bitter taste in Rose's mouth, but not enough bring him back for another year.
O.J. MAYO - PG/SG
20 years old; 6-5; 195 lbs.
USC, Freshman
NBA Readiness
Overall, Mayo is more NBA-ready than Derrick Rose. Mayo is a 6-5, 200-pound brickhouse of a combo guard with tons of confidence. He has unbelievable athleticism, explosive quickness, and great court vision. With his natural ability to score, Mayo can put it through the hoop from anywhere on the court. He is one the few college players with NBA range, an incredible midrange game, and the ability to consistently finish in traffic at the basket. He has all the intangibles needed to become a prolific scoring the NBA. He can shoot coming off a screen, create his own space and pull up off the dribble, or take a smaller defender to the post and knock down a fadeaway.
Mayo is also a strong man-to-man defender and can lock down a 1 or 2 guard. Contrary to what most people believe, Mayo is extremely coachable, has a great work ethic, and a high basketball IQ.
NBA Improvements
Mayo has held back his productivity with poor shot selections and unforced turnovers. He tends to settle for the first shot and forces the game instead of letting it come to him. He also settles for a jumper too often, passing up opportunities to attack the basket. It concerns me that he has great ball-handling skills and vision, and still averaged 3.5 turnovers per game. This makes me question his mental focus and desire to win.
NBA Future - All-Star
Although Mayo is a guaranteed lottery pick and will most likely go between
Nos. 3 and 5, and is still the most underrated player in the draft. If he was eligible last year he could have possibly went before Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. He should be in discussion of the first overall pick and under no circumstances should he get drafted after Bayless or Gordon. Mayo is the only guard in the 2008 class with the possibility of having a better NBA career than Derrick Rose. Mayo is accustomed to the bright lights and at 20 years old is built like an NBA veteran. He could become a great NBA point guard, but will eventually become an All-Star as a 2 guard. Teams that pass on Mayo just might be reminded what a mistake it was every time they face him.
Draft Range: Top 3-5
Stock Watch: Steady
Go or stay? Go
Coming out of high school, Mayo was the most hyped player since LeBron James. Before anyone ever heard of Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose, people knew about O.J. Mayo. Many believe he did not live up to his hype, but I disagree. Mayo led a very young USC team to be competitive in the best conference in the nation and an NCAA tournament appearance. If he were to stay in college another year, USC would be favored to win the Pac-10 and ready to compete for a national championship. But unless winning a college title is
a major goal of Mayo's, which I highly doubt, he has no reason to stay for his sophomore season.
